【秋華賞2019予想/出走予定馬分析】桜花賞馬・オークス馬不在の混戦を制するのはアノ馬!穴馬で狙うなら好位から堅実に脚を使えるアノ馬!

今週の日曜京都11Rは3歳牝馬限定のG1秋華賞が行われます。

近年の勝ち馬からはアーモンドアイ、ディアドラ、ヴィブロス、ショウナンパンドラなど国内外のG1を後に勝つ馬も輩出しており、日本のトップホースを目指す馬がここから出てくることでしょう。

《出走予定馬分析》

  • ダノンファンタジー

2歳女王に輝いたものの春のG1では思うような結果を残せなかった本馬ですが、休み明け初戦となったローズステークスでは優秀な時計で力を誇示しました。
おそらくマイル~1800がベストでこの距離はやや長いと思われますが、出走メンバー中唯一のG1馬として勝ち負けには加わってくるでしょう。

  • クロノジェネシス

クイーンカップを制し、この世代のG1では阪神JFで2着、桜花賞とオークスでは3着と世代のトップクラスの力は示しています。
ただどうも勝ちきれない印象は強いですし、休み明け初戦がG1ということからも勝つまでは難しいと思われ、ヒモに入れるかどうかといったところでしょうか。

  • コントラチェック

逃げて条件戦とフラワーカップを制した本馬ですが、オークスでは距離が長かったか最後垂れて9着に敗れました。
ルメール騎手騎乗である程度人気は吸う存在になりそうですが、あのレース内容以来の一戦がG1というのはやや不安に思われ、ここは見送りで良いでしょう。

  • カレンブーケドール

オークス2着以来の実戦となった前走では先行しながら伸びを欠き3着まででしたが、休み明けの一戦としては悪くないレースだったと思います。
先行して差す形が勝ちパターンになると思われますが、一度使った上積みで最後まで脚を使えれば、ここでG1制覇ということも十分あり得るでしょう。

  • サトノダムゼル

3歳6月の未勝利戦がデビューとなった本馬ですが、無傷の3連勝で初の重賞出走がG1となりました。
一線級の相手と初めて走るので凡走もあり得ますが、重馬場で2勝を挙げておりパワーは問題ないでしょうし、もし週末馬場が悪化するようならアタマまであってもよいと見ています。

グロリアバナー
【人気NO.1】安定の的中率×圧倒的な配当

《注目の穴馬》

  • フェアリーポルカ

オークスでは16着に敗れて上位陣との力の差を見せつけられましたが、秋の初戦となった紫苑ステークスでは好位から良い伸び脚を見せ2着に入りました。
近年は紫苑ステークス組から秋華賞に絡むケースも増えていますし、軽視してはいけない存在だと言えるでしょう。

《予想》

◎ カレンブーケドール

○ サトノダムゼル

▲ ダノンファンタジー

☆ フェアリーポルカ

△ クロノジェネシス

《買い目》

三連単フォーメーション 計27点

1着 ◎、○、▲ 計3頭

2着 ◎、○、▲、☆ 計4頭

3着 ◎、○、▲、☆、△ 計5頭 

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