【京都大賞典2019予想/出走予定馬分析】同舞台の日経新春杯を今年制したアノ馬の取捨は!?本命は人気薄が予想されるも復調気配を見せるアノ馬!

今週の日曜京都11RはG2京都大賞典が行われます。
近年はやや重要性は落ちている印象も、秋の古馬王道戦線を占う意味では重要なレースとなりますし、この秋の台風の目となりうる存在を見つけるレースになるでしょう。

《出走予定馬分析》

  • グローリーヴェイズ

4歳10月にしてこれが9戦目とキャリアの浅い本馬ですが、今回と同じ京都芝2400mで行われた今年の日経新春杯を制し、春の天皇賞でも2着と現在の中長距離戦線ではトップクラスに位置していると言えるでしょう。

57㎏の斤量も春の天皇賞で58㎏を背負っていることから問題にしないでしょうし、差し脚も堅実ですから開幕週の馬場を味方につけた先行馬が台頭しなければ勝ち負け必至でしょう。

  • エタリオウ

最強の1勝馬とも評される本馬ですが、今年に入ってからの3戦ではG2日経賞こそ2着も春の天皇賞と宝塚記念では馬券圏外に敗れています。
それでも芝2400m以上でこの相手関係なら十分勝機を見出せるだけの実績はありますし、前目につけて競馬出来れば悲願の2勝目も達成できるかもしれません。

  • エアウィンザー

昨年は4連勝でG3チャレンジカップを優勝し、今年の大阪杯でも5着と中距離では一線級の力を見せています。
ただ2000m超のレースは一度しか経験していませんし、本質的には2000m以下でベストパフォーマンスを見せる馬だと思われることからここでは見送りで良いでしょう。

  • ダンビュライト

今年の京都記念を制した本馬ですが、この馬も戦績からは2400mはやや長い印象です。
とは言えダービー6着、神戸新聞杯4着とこなせない距離ではないとも言えますし、この相手関係であれば勝ち負けはどうかも馬券圏内には入ってくる地力は持っていそうです。

  • シルヴァンシャー

3連勝でオープン入りを果たした本馬ですが、前々走ではその後5連勝でG3タイトルを3つ得たメールドグラースを破っているように重賞級の力を持つ馬だと言えます。
ただ6か月の休養明けになりますし、流石に古馬の別定重賞で勝つまでは難しいと思われ、ヒモまでで考えておいたほうが良さそうです。

[PR]完全無料で毎週無料情報を配信!

《注目の穴馬》

  • ノーブルマーズ

今年の日経新春杯ではグローリーヴェイズに0.2秒差の4着でしたが、この時はグローリーヴェイズの斤量が1㎏軽い状態でした。

今回はグローリーヴェイズの斤量が57㎏となりノーブルマーズが1㎏軽い状態となりますし、当時から大きく馬の力の差がついていないとすると斤量差を活かしてグローリーヴェイズに先着する展開もありうるでしょう。

《予想》

◎ ノーブルマーズ

○ エタリオウ

▲ グローリーヴェイズ

☆ ダンビュライト

△ シルヴァンシャー

《買い目》

三連単フォーメーション 計27点

1着 ◎、○、▲ 計3頭

2着 ◎、○、▲、☆ 計4頭

3着 ◎、○、▲、☆、△ 計5頭 

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