今週の日曜新潟11Rは2歳馬の重賞である新潟2歳ステークスが行われます。
後のG1勝ち馬も多く輩出しているレースであり、この世代のクラシック戦線を占う意味でも注目しておきたい一戦となるでしょう。
《出走予定馬分析》
- モーベット
重賞4勝馬のアイムユアーズを母に持つ良血馬である本馬ですが、新馬戦では出遅れるも最後方から上がり3ハロン最速の脚を繰り出し差し切るパフォーマンスを見せました。
ただ新馬戦とはいえこの日のメインで行われた安田記念が1分30秒9で決着する中1分36秒9という時計は平凡で、上がり3ハロン33秒8という時計も超抜とは言えません。
新馬戦の7頭立てから倍以上の頭数でのレースにもなりますし、出遅れなどの気のまずさを見せる可能性を考えると絶対の信頼はおけないでしょう。
- ウーマンズハート
同舞台の新馬戦では上がり3ハロン32秒0という極限の末脚を発揮した本馬ですが、1分36秒2という時計は新馬戦とはいえ平凡でしょう。
重賞で前が流れる展開になった場合にどれだけ対応可能かは疑問で、末脚不発ということも想定しておく必要はあるでしょう。
- ペールエール
新馬戦では重馬場をもろともせず上がり3ハロン最速の脚で一騎打ちを制した本馬ですが、比較的親和性のあるであろう中京コースで勝っていることも評価して良いでしょう。
ただ馬格のある馬ですし、パンパンの良馬場で馬力を問われない状況になると評価は下げても良いかもしれません。
- グランチェイサー
新馬戦では番手から抜け出して接戦を制した本馬ですが、2歳6月の東京芝1400mを稍重馬場の中1分22秒台で走れる脚力はこのメンバーの中では評価して良いでしょう。
逃げて勝ちあがってきた馬はビッククインバイオくらいですが先行勢は多そうですし、ペースが流れて総合力を問われるならばこの馬の台頭を期待して良いでしょう。
- エレナアヴァンティ
ダリア賞を勝ってこの中では唯一の複数勝利馬となっている本馬ですが、新馬戦から1ハロン距離が伸びたダリア賞ではややパフォーマンスを落とした印象があります。
アドマイヤムーン産駒で短距離向きの印象もありますし、更に1ハロン伸びても対応できるとは考えにくく、ここは見送りで良いでしょう。
《注目の穴馬》
- ウインカーネリアン
新馬戦3着後に福島芝1800mの2歳未勝利戦で勝ち上がった本馬ですが、本馬のオーナーであるウインに所属する馬が夏の福島芝1800mの2歳未勝利戦で勝ち上がると、その後いずれかの重賞で馬券圏内に必ず入っているようです。
2015年のこのレース2着馬のウインファビラスも勝ち上がりは福島芝1800mでしたし、人気しないようなら狙ってみる価値はある一頭だと言えるでしょう。
《予想》
◎ グランチェイサー
○ モーベット
▲ ウインカーネリアン
☆ ウーマンズハート
△ ペールエール
- 《買い目》
三連単フォーメーション 計27点
1着 ◎、○、▲ 計3頭
2着 ◎、○、▲、☆ 計4頭
3着 ◎、○、▲、☆、△ 計5頭
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