今週の日曜福島11Rは七夕賞が行われます。
昨年は三連単で256万馬券が生まれる大波乱のレースとなりましたが、今年も本命不在の印象で難解なレースとなりそうです。
《出走予定馬分析》
- タニノフランケル
血統面から大きな期待を背負い、人気先行するも重賞を勝つという結果にまでは至っていません。
小回りで見直しと行きたいところですが、前走ハナを叩かれたブラックスピネルに加えマルターズアポジーという強力な逃げ馬も参戦するため、自分の形で競馬出来ずに惨敗することも考えられます。
- ロシュフォール
左回りの広いコースがベストと目される本馬ですが、近走の充実ぶりは目を見張ります。
前が速くなる展開が予想されるため、過去7戦中6度繰り出している上がり3ハロン最速の脚を使えれば馬券圏内を外すことは考えにくいでしょう。
- ミッキースワロー
昨年秋はG1戦線で健闘した本馬ですが、今年はG3で2着10着とピリッとしません。
前走はスローペースが災いした印象で、流れる展開になるだろう今回は前走ほど敗れるとは考えにくいですが、菊沢騎手への乗り替わりもマイナスと見てここは消しで良いでしょう。
- ブラックスピネル
今年に入って逃げ先行に脚質転換して復活の兆しを見せている本馬ですが、今回は恐らくマルターズアポジーにハナを譲ることになるでしょう。
手が合っていた三浦騎手から石橋騎手への乗り替わりは気になりますが、番手からマイペースで運べればここでも崩れず粘ってくれるでしょう。
- クレッシェンドラヴ
オープン入り初戦となった福島民報杯では後方からまくっていき2着と結果を残した本馬ですが、右回りを中心に使われてきたことからもこの舞台は向くでしょう。重馬場での勝ち鞍もあり、ハンデの恩恵も考慮すれば重賞勝ち馬を負かすチャンスは十分あるでしょう。
《注目の穴馬》
- ウインテンダネス
昨年の目黒記念を制した本馬ですが、それ以降はG1とG2で壁を感じる結果が続きここでも注目度はさほど高くならなそうです。
ただ自身の実績や戦ってきた相手も考えればここで見限るのは早計でしょう。
左回り巧者の印象が強いものの福島芝2000mは2戦2勝ですし、重馬場や稍重馬場で勝った経験もあることから、人気を落とすようなら積極的に買って良いでしょう。
- ソールインパクト
前走目黒記念ではウインテンダネスに先着して3着となった本馬ですが、こちらも注目度は低くなりそうです。
それでも今年は重賞で4着3着3着と崩れていませんし、一昨年の七夕賞では格上挑戦で3着に入ったように舞台適性も見込めます。
斤量がその時より増えることを考えると勝ち負けまでは厳しいかもしれませんが、3着なら十分あり得るでしょう。
《予想》
◎ ウインテンダネス
○ ロシュフォール
▲ クレッシェンドラヴ
☆ ブラックスピネル
△ ソールインパクト
《買い目》
三連単フォーメーション 計27点
1着 ◎、○、▲ 計3頭
2着 ◎、○、▲、☆ 計4頭
3着 ◎、○、▲、☆、△ 計5頭
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